Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-x

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2. Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Models

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-3

      PDF

   2. Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1969–1979

      • J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka

      Pages 5-32

   3. Modeling Rare Events: The Frequencies of Fires in Nuclear Power Plants

      • M. Kazarians, G. Apostolakis

      Pages 33-53

   4. Flood Prediction with Causal Analysis

      • Thomas P. Ballestero, Daryl B. Simons, Ruh-Ming Li

      Pages 55-63

   5. Methodology for Flood Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants

      • David P. Wagner, Myron L. Casada, J. B. Fussell

      Pages 65-80

   6. Dam Failures: Insights to Nuclear Power Risks

      • William L. Baldewicz

      Pages 81-90

   7. The Trade-off Between Expected Risk and the Potential for Large Accidents

      • F. Niehaus, G. de Leon, M. Cullingford

      Pages 91-105

   8. Models for the use of Expert Opinions

      • A. Mosleh, G. Apostolakis

      Pages 107-124

3. Uncertainties Associated with Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Results

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 125-126

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   2. Bayesian Estimates for the Rate of three Mile Island Type Releases

      • Peter G. Groer

      Pages 127-136

   3. An Incentive Approach to Eliciting Probabilities

      • Ross D. Shachter

      Pages 137-152

   4. Robust Risk Analysis: The Need for it in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Evaluations

      • W. E. Vesely

      Pages 153-160

   5. A Kalman Filter Model for Determining Block and Trickle SNM Losses

      • R. E. Barlow, M. J. Durst, N. G. Smiriga

      Pages 161-179

4. Statistics in Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 181-185

      PDF

   2. Predicting Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events

      • H. F. Martz, M. C. Bryson

      Pages 187-199

   3. Statistical Methods of Risk Assessment for Energy Technology

      • K. G. Vohra

      Pages 201-215

5. Case Studies of Recent Risk Analyses

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 217-220

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   2. Lessons Learned from First Generation Nuclear Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessments

      • B. John Garrick

      Pages 221-238

   3. Use of Risk Analysis Methods in the LNG Industry

      • P. J. Pelto

      Pages 239-255

In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif­ icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

• attention
• complexity
• health
• time

• Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA

  Ray A. Waller

• U.S. National Science Foundation, USA

  Vincent T. Covello

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