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Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations

  • Book
  • © 1993

Overview

Editors:
  1. Kenneth G. Manton

    1. Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, USA

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  2. Burton H. Singer

    1. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  3. Richard M. Suzman

    1. NIH/NIA, Bethesda, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

Part of the book series: Statistics for Biology and Health (SBH)

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Table of contents (15 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-x
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  2. Introduction

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
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    2. The Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Health Forecasting Models for Elderly Populations

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Richard M. Suzman
      Pages 3-35

  3. Methodological Issues

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 37-37
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    2. Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods

      • H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Hickman, Edward A. Lew
      Pages 39-49

    3. Demographic Change in the United States, 1970 – 2050

      • Samuel H. Preston
      Pages 51-77

    4. Health Forecasting and Models of Aging

      • Kenneth G. Manton
      Pages 79-106

  4. Forecasting Techniques for Specific Diseases

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 107-107
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    2. Cancer Forecasting: Cohort Models of Disease Progression and Mortality

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Eric Stallard
      Pages 109-136

    3. The Effects of Risk Factors on Male and Female Cardiovascular Risks in Middle and Late Age

      • Kenneth G. Manton, John E. Dowd, Eric Stallard
      Pages 137-158

    4. Frailty and Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy in the United States

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Korbin Liu
      Pages 159-181

    5. Risk Factors Affecting Multiple-Disease Efficacy and Effectiveness of Intervention Programs

      • H. Dennis Tolley, Kenneth G. Manton, J. Richard Bumgarner
      Pages 183-203

  5. Effects of Interventions on Health Costs

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 205-205
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    2. Estimates and Projections of Dementia-Related Service Expenditures

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, Robert Clark
      Pages 207-238

    3. A Forecasting Model for the Assessment of Medical Technologies: End-Stage Renal Disease

      • Henry Krakauer
      Pages 239-261

    4. Projections of the Aged Supplementary Security Income Population: The Implications of Uncertainty

      • Larry S. Corder, Lisa M. LaVange, Fred A. Bryan
      Pages 263-273

    5. Evaluation of Long-Term Care: Estimation of Health Transitions in Frail Populations

      • H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Vertrees, Kenneth G. Manton
      Pages 275-287

    6. Financing and Use of Long-Term Care for the Elderly

      • Joshua M. Wiener, Raymond J. Hanley, Denise A. Spence, Sheila E. Murray
      Pages 289-304

  6. Longitudinal Research: Current Status and Future Outlook

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 305-305
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    2. Molecular Biological Approaches to Understanding Aging and Senescence

      • Huber R. Warner
      Pages 307-317
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Keywords

About this book

Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.

Reviews

"...presents several challenges to the reader in that it covers a wide variety of topics in varying amounts of detail...References to the literature in all the related fields are extensive and up to date...In summary, this book is a worthwhile addition to the literature on aging research." (Journal of the American Statistical Association)

Editors and Affiliations

  • Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, USA

    Kenneth G. Manton

  • Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, USA

    Burton H. Singer

  • NIH/NIA, Bethesda, USA

    Richard M. Suzman

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