Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiii

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2. The Case for Engineering Probability

   1. The Case for Engineering Probability

      • Max Mendel

      Pages 1-22

3. Part I

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 23-23

      PDF

   2. Optimal Maintenance Decisions for the Sea-Bed Protection of the Eastern-Scheldt Barrier

      • Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, Roger Cooke

      Pages 25-56

   3. Review Problem Owner Perspective

      • Leo Klatter

      Pages 57-59

   4. Review Engineering Perspective

      • John Shortle

      Pages 61-66

   5. Gamma Processes and their Generalizations: An Overview

      • Nozer Singpurwalla

      Pages 67-75

   6. Gamma Processes

      • Hans van der Weide

      Pages 77-83

   7. Reply to the Reviews

      • Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, Roger Cooke

      Pages 85-86

4. Part II

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 87-87

      PDF

   2. A Physics-Based Approach to Predicting the Frequency of Extreme River Levels

      • Steve Chick, John Shortle, Pieter van Gelder, Max Mendel

      Pages 89-107

   3. Review Problem Owner and Engineering Perspective

      • Richard Jorissen, Matthijs Kok

      Pages 109-131

   4. Review Mathematical Perspective

      • Jolanta Misiewicz

      Pages 133-134

   5. Reply to the Reviews

      • Steve Chick, John Shortle, Pieter van Gelder, Max Mendel

      Pages 135-138

5. Part III

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 139-139

      PDF

   2. Large Mean out Crossing of Nonlinear Response to Stochastic Input

      • Chun-Ching Li, Armen Der Kiureghian

      Pages 141-160

   3. Review Problem Owner Perspective

      • Arie Kraak

      Pages 161-162

   4. Review Engineering Perspective

      • Ton Vrouwenvelder

      Pages 163-165

   5. Review Mathematical Perspective

      • Arne Huseby

      Pages 167-172

   6. Reply To The Reviews

      • Armen Der Kiureghian, Chun-Ching Li

      Pages 173-177

The First Conference on Engineering Probability in Flood Defense was orga­ nized by the Department of Mathematics and Informatics of the Delft U niver­ sity of Technology and the Department of Industrial Engineering and Opera­ tions Research of the University of California at Berkeley, and was held on June 1,2 1995 in Delft. Groups at Berkeley and Delft were both deeply engaged in modeling deterioration in civil structures, particularly flood defense structures. The plans for the conference were well under way when the dramatic floods in The Netherlands and California in the winter of 1994-1995 focused world attention on these problems. The design of civil engineering structures and systems is essentially an example of decision making under uncertainty. Although the decision making part of the process is generally acknowledged, the uncertainty in variables and param­ eters in the design problem is less frequently recognized. In many practical design procedures the uncertainty is concealed behind sharp probabilistic de­ sign targets like 'once in a thousand years' combined with a standardized use of safety factors. The choice of these probabilistic design targets, however, is based on an assessment of the uncertainty of the variable under consideration, and on its assessed importance. The value of the safety factor is governed by similar considerations. Standard practice is simply accu~ulated experience and engineering judgment. In light of the great number of civil engineering structures that function suc-. cessfully, one may say that this standard practice has proven itself broadly satisfactory.

• civil engineering
• research
• uncertainty

• Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

  Roger Cooke, Han Vrijling

• University of California, Berkeley, USA

  Max Mendel

Policies and ethics