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Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

  • Conference proceedings
  • © 2008

Overview

  • First unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses
  • Embraces prediction of El Niño and management of climate risks
  • Covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern
  • Offers a fascinating insight into links between science and policy/management
  • Written by some of the world’s leading experts

Part of the book series: NATO Science Series: IV: (NAIV, volume 82)

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Table of contents (14 papers)

  1. Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context

  2. The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

  3. Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

  4. Developing Successful Application Strategies

  5. The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting

Keywords

About this book

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard “collection of proceedings”. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughly peer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area.

The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, for which El Niño forecasting provides the prime basis, derives from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose exciting new scientific challenges for the climate community, but it is linked naturally to a great variety of key practical concerns, from security related issues, such as water resource management, food security, and disaster prediction and prevention, to health planning, agriculture management, energy supply, and tourism, to name but a few. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in certain policy/decision making systems, not least within the contexts of sustainable development and of climate change adaptation.

Editors and Affiliations

  • European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, UK

    Alberto Troccoli, David L. T. Anderson

  • Wolverton Common, UK

    Mike Harrison

  • International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, USA

    Simon J. Mason

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