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Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

Twenty-five Years of Experience with the US RPA Timber Assessment

  • Book
  • © 2007

Overview

Editors:
  1. Darius M. Adams

    1. Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Richard W. Haynes

    1. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  • Exhaustive review of modelling methods
  • Links theory with a quarter century of applied forecasting
  • Case studies illustrate use in major current policy issues
  • Illustrates the role economic analysis has played in forest policy development

Part of the book series: Managing Forest Ecosystems (MAFE, volume 14)

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Table of contents (17 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxii
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  2. Timber Assessments Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
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    2. The Challenge of Developing Models to Support Forest Sector Policy Analysis

      • Darius M. Adams, Richard W. Haynes
      Pages 3-18

    3. Methodological Considerations in Developing the Timber Assessment Projection System

      • Darius M. Adams, Richard W. Haynes
      Pages 19-51

  3. Model Components

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 53-53
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    2. Solid Wood—Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM)

      • Darius M. Adams
      Pages 55-97

    3. North American Pulp & Paper Model (NAPAP)

      • Peter J. Ince, Joseph Buongiorno
      Pages 99-174

    4. Methods for Projecting Areas of Private Timberland and Forest Cover Types

      • Ralph J. Alig, Andrew Plantinga
      Pages 175-227

    5. Timber Inventory and Management—ATLAS

      • John R. Mills, Darius M. Adams
      Pages 229-263

    6. Exogenous Assumptions—Framing the Base Case and Scenarios

      • Darius M. Adams, Richard W. Haynes
      Pages 265-288

    7. Model Solution, Validation, and Control

      • Darius M. Adams
      Pages 289-318

  4. Projections and Scenarios

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 319-319
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    2. Base Case Projection

      • Darius M. Adams
      Pages 321-352

    3. Evolving Views of the Future of the US Forest Sector

      • Darius M. Adams, Richard W. Haynes
      Pages 353-380

    4. The Impact of Public Harvest in the USA on North American Timber and Product Markets

      • Darius M. Adams, Richard W. Haynes
      Pages 381-397

    5. The Role of Private Management Investment in Long-Term Supply

      • Darius M. Adams, John R. Mills, Ralph J. Alig
      Pages 399-418

    6. Globalization and World Trade

      • Peter J. Ince, Joseph Buongiorno
      Pages 419-447

    7. The Impacts of Climate Change on Forestry

      • Linda A. Joyce
      Pages 449-488

    8. Projecting Technological Change

      • Kenneth E. Skog
      Pages 489-511

    9. Long-Term Views of the US Land Base

      • Ralph J. Alig
      Pages 513-542
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About this book

Figure 1-1. Post-World War II US assessment history. 1973)weremotivatedbytheemergingcon?ictsinthepost-WorldWar II period between rapidly increasing softwood harvests and declining timber growth. These are called the Outlook Studies. The last six studies (1980, 1985, 1989, 1993, 2000, 2005) have been conducted to meet the requirements of the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974. These are called the RPA Timber Assessments. 6 The Challenge of Developing Models 1. 2 SHAPING THE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM This initial chapter describes the development and speci?c structure of the Assessment System. We consider past policy analysis needs and federal legislative requirements, antecedent modeling and projection approaches, characteristics of the US forest sector, and recent trends in public and private resource management. At the federal level, and in some states and regions, the USA has a lengthy history of using resource and market models to explore policy issues and to examine the e?ects of alternative policy actions. Many of these studies have been undertaken on an irregular basis as issues emerged and resource conditions changed. The RPA legislation mandated a regular cycle of nationwide assessments by the Forest Service, examining trends and conditionsinanarrayofresourceusesandservices(climate,minerals, range,recreation,timber,andwater). ThestructureoftheAssessment System re?ects both the requirements of the RPA legislation and the unique characteristics of the US forest sector, which it is designed to simulate. IntheyearssinceenactmentoftheRPAlegislation,mana- ment directions, and objectives on both public and private lands in the USA have continued to evolve. The structure of the Assessment System has been adapted to re?ect these trends.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA

    Darius M. Adams

  • Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, USA

    Richard W. Haynes

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