Medium-Range Weather Prediction

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XIV

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2. The first Director

   Pages 1-17

3. The beginnings — the political background

   Pages 18-22

4. Meteorological developments 1967 to 1971

   Pages 23-35

5. The Project Study

   Pages 36-47

6. The Convention

   Pages 48-61

7. In the United Kingdom

   Pages 62-71

8. 1794 to 1980: The Formative Years

   Pages 72-84

9. The Analysis System — OI to 4D-Var

   Pages 85-97

10. The Medium-Range Model

    Pages 98-114

11. Ensemble prediction — forecasting the error

    Pages 115-128

12. Seasonal prediction

    Pages 129-141

13. Wave prediction

    Pages 142-157

14. Data from on high

    Pages 158-166

15. Re-analysis — towards a new ERA

    Pages 167-182

16. Archives and Graphics: towards MARS, MAGICS and Metview

    Pages 183-193

17. The computer system: CDC, Cray, Fujitsu, IBM

    Pages 194-210

18. Communicating the forecasts: mail and 50 baud to RMDCN

    Pages 211-220

19. Commercial issues

    Pages 221-228

20. The Staff

    Pages 229-235

About 450 million people live in the 18 States that set up the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Thirty years ago, they est- lished an independent institution with a clearly defined objective. It was not to be a university-type institute for research, neither was it to be an ope- tional weather forecast office. It would combine the scientific and technical resources of its Member States to use the most powerful computers in order to extend the range of weather forecasts beyond two or three days, the limit of useful forecasts at that time. It would be small; the work force was to be limited to about 150, incl- ing administrative and other support staff. In 2005, 30 years after the Convention was signed, the staff totalled about 160. The Centre attracted the best talent in its specific field of endeavour. Each year about ten scientists left, to be replaced by newcomers bringing younger minds and fresh ideas. It is not surprising that it quickly became a world leader in its field. It is widely recognised as having maintained its leading position. This book considers how the Centre was conceived in the confusing and difficult political period of the 1960s in Europe. It summarises the political, scientific, technical and financial discussions that led to the drafting of its Convention, and how it came to be built 60 km west of London, England.

• Europe
• Weather
• Weather forecasting
• earthquake prediction
• research
• meteorology
• remote sensing/photogrammetry
• climate change

From the reviews:

"Austin Woods undertook … ambitious enterprise by guiding the reader through four decades of research and development structured into 20 chapters, which are surrounded by three forewords and three appendices. … The great strengths of Woods’ story lie in his unassuming tone, his short and at times dry personal style … . Furthermore the author has a gift to explain the complex facets inherent in modern weather forecasting in a fashion that puts the interested … reader on a valuable track towards (a better) understanding." (H. Volkert, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15 (6), 2006)

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berkshire, UK

  Austin Woods

Dr. James Austin Woods (PhD Meteorology Penn State University 1970 and 1972) joined ECMWF in 1978 from the Irish Meteorological Service as Head of Meteorological Operations and became Assistant Director in 1984. In 2004 he retired, at the age of 63.

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