Overview
Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (ISOR, volume 30)
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Table of contents (32 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Introduction
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Role Playing
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Front Matter
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Intentions
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Front Matter
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Conjoint Analysis
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Front Matter
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Judgmental Bootstrapping
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Front Matter
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Analogies
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Front Matter
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Extrapolation
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Front Matter
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Keywords
About this book
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Reviews
John Aitchison, Director of DataSciencesResearch (www.DataSciencesResearch.com)
`This very readable handbook provides a comprehensive synopsis of the entire field of forecasting. The editor, Scott Armstrong, is highly qualified to pull together such a volume. He has been centrally involved in the development of the subject for more than two decades. Armstrong's publications cover the field, ranging from econometric modeling and the extrapolation of time-series data, to role playing and opinion-based forecasting; he is the author of the equally comprehensive book Long-Range Forecasting, which was published in 1978...In sum, Principles of Forecasting is a very handsome volume. It will be a welcome addition to any applied research library, and it should be kept near at hand by any statistician.'
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series D, The Statistician (forthcoming in 2003)
(For the complete review, please check: forecastingprinciples.com)
`... Armstrong's book goes beyond its stated goal of presenting the state of the art of forecasting research in the form of concrete principles; it sets the tone and direction for all future work in this area. The book has earned its place as the bible for forecasters and is a "must have" in every forecaster's library.'
Journal of Marketing Research, XXXIX (2003)
Editors and Affiliations
About the editor
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: Principles of Forecasting
Book Subtitle: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
Editors: J. Scott Armstrong
Series Title: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
Publisher: Springer New York, NY
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eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive
Copyright Information: Springer-Verlag US 2001
Hardcover ISBN: 978-0-7923-7930-0Published: 31 May 2001
Softcover ISBN: 978-0-7923-7401-5Published: 31 January 2002
eBook ISBN: 978-0-306-47630-3Published: 31 May 2001
Series ISSN: 0884-8289
Series E-ISSN: 2214-7934
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XII, 850
Topics: Management, Marketing, Operations Research/Decision Theory