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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

  • Book
  • © 2001

Overview

Editors:
  1. Ewa Tabeau

    1. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

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  2. Anneke Berg Jeths

    1. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  3. Christopher Heathcote

    1. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

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Part of the book series: European Studies of Population (ESPO, volume 9)

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Table of contents (12 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxvi
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  2. Introduction

    1. A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality

      • Ewa Tabeau
      Pages 1-32

    2. A Review of Epidemiological Approaches to Forecasting Mortality and Morbidity

      • Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Guus De Hollander, Ewa Tabeau
      Pages 33-56

  3. Theoretical Perspectives on Forecasting Mortality

    1. A Regression Model of Mortality, with Application to the Netherlands

      • Christopher Heathcote, Tim Higgins
      Pages 59-82

    2. Forecasting Mortality from Regression Models: The Case of the Netherlands

      • Christopher Heathcote, Tim Higgins
      Pages 83-103

    3. Gompertz in Context: The Gompertz and Related Distributions

      • Frans Willekens
      Pages 105-126

    4. Comparing Theoretical Age Patterns of Mortality Beyond the Age of 80

      • Lech Boleslawski, Ewa Tabeau
      Pages 127-155

  4. From Theory to Practice

    1. Predicting Mortality from Period, Cohort or Cause-specific Trends: A Study of Four European Countries

      • Ewa Tabeau, Peter Ekamper, Corina Huisman, Alinda Bosch
      Pages 159-187

    2. Incorporating Risk Factor Epidemiology in Mortality Projections

      • Marianne Van Genugten, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Augustinus De Hollander
      Pages 189-204

    3. Projecting Mortality in Population Forecasts in the Netherlands

      • Wim Van Hoorn, Joop De Beer
      Pages 205-226

    4. The Latest Mortality Forecasts in the European Union

      • Harri Cruijsen, Harold Eding
      Pages 227-258

  5. Issues for the Future: More Consistency and Transparency

    1. Mortality Models Incorporating Theoretical Concepts of Ageing

      • Anatoli Yashin
      Pages 261-280

    2. Towards an Integration of the Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspectives in Forecasting Mortality

      • Ewa Tabeau, Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote
      Pages 281-303

  6. Back Matter

    Pages 304-304
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Keywords

About this book

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

    Ewa Tabeau

  • National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Anneke Berg Jeths

  • Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Christopher Heathcote

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