Risk, Organizations, and Society

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-ix

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2. Introduction: Risk in a Complex World

   1. Introduction: Risk in a Complex World

      • Martin Shubik

      Pages 1-3

3. Methodological Comments

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 5-5

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   2. Risk, Society, Politicians, Scientists, and People

      • Martin Shubik

      Pages 7-29

4. Topics in Risk and Organization

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 31-31

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   2. Determinants of Public Participation in Management of Technological Risk

      • Jan A. J. Stolwijk, Priscilla F. Canny

      Pages 33-47

   3. The Strategic Defense Initiative and Nuclear Proliferation from a Risk Analysis Perspective

      • Chauncey Starr, Chris Whipple

      Pages 49-61

   4. Risk Assessment and Organizational Behavior: The Case of Nuclear Technology and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

      • Henry S. Rowen

      Pages 63-77

   5. Evaluating Security Against Terrorism

      • Brian M. Jenkins

      Pages 79-96

   6. Terrorism and Airline Security: An Interview with Homer A. Boynton

      • Homer A Boynton

      Pages 97-104

   7. Smoking and Health Promotion: Obstacles and Opportunities

      • Ernst L. Wynder, M. Orlandi

      Pages 105-128

   8. Cigarette Smoking: A Study of Change in Behavior

      • Thomas C. Schelling

      Pages 129-141

   9. Nuclear Power and Public Perception

      • Alvin M. Weinberg

      Pages 143-161

   10. The Failure of Nuclear Power

       • Henry W. Kendall

       Pages 163-218

5. Back Matter

   Pages 219-239

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Growth of the electric industry Electric generating stations and the associated transmission and distribu­ tion systems are high ticket items as are the costs of fuel and of operating the industry. The country presently spends about $150 billion annually on electricity. It is the country's largest industry, with assets of over $400 billion (Edison Electric Institute Statistical Year book, 1985). The country's electric generating capacity and the end use of electricity grew exponentially for about 70 years, starting at the beginning of the century, with a doubling period of roughly seven years (see figurelO-1). Over much of this period electric utility planning could simply consist of laying a ruler on such a logarithmic plot. The utilities could then, know­ ing plant construction times, write out purchase orders. Improvements in power generating technology allowed electric rates to decline, which permitted the market to expand to accommodate the additional supply. The prospective growth was a heady vision and provided much of the stimulus for the supporters of nuclear power. An example of such extra­ polation made in 1971 is shown in figure 10-2 (The U. S. Energy Problem, 1971). Another forecast (Electrical Power Supply and Demand Forecasts for the United States Through 2050, 1972) projected an installed capacity of 1. 5 million MV(e) in the year 2000, of which 45 percent was to be nuclear. For the year 2050 the installed capacity would have risen to 5. 2 million MW(e), of which 88 percent was to be nuclear.

• calculus
• growth
• risk analysis
• utility

• Mathematical Institutional Economics, Yale School of Organization and Management, New Haven, USA

  Martin Shubik

Policies and ethics