Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research

Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis

Authors: Pisarenko, V., Rodkin, M.

  • Presents mathematical evidence of non-robustness of Mmax parameter  
  • Details robust analog of Mmax  
  • Provides evidence in support of possible realization of sustainable development  
  • Examines distribution laws typical for natural disasters  
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eBook $119.00
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  • ISBN 978-90-481-9171-0
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Hardcover $159.00
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  • ISBN 978-90-481-9170-3
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Softcover $159.00
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  • ISBN 978-94-007-3285-8
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
About this book

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. Audience: This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

Reviews

From the reviews:

“This book is, therefore, timely and should be welcomed by those working in earthquake forecasting … . an important reference text that should be useful to those seeking to estimate loss and quantify probabilities of rare events using the conventional approach of nipping and tucking the seismic database to the Poissonian figure. Those seeking to model the real Earth seismic expression may also find it a useful start point.” (Joan L. Latchman, Mathematical Geosciences, Vol. 43, 2011)

Table of contents (7 chapters)

  • Distributions of Characteristics of Natural Disasters: Data and Classification

    Pisarenko, V. (et al.)

    Pages 1-22

  • Models for the Generation of Distributions of Different Types

    Pisarenko, V. (et al.)

    Pages 23-37

  • Nonparametric Methods in the Study of Distributions

    Pisarenko, V. (et al.)

    Pages 39-53

  • Nonlinear and Linear Growth of Cumulative Effects of Natural Disasters

    Pisarenko, V. (et al.)

    Pages 55-83

  • The Nonlinear and Linear Modes of Growth of the Cumulative Seismic Moment

    Pisarenko, V. (et al.)

    Pages 85-113

Buy this book

eBook $119.00
price for USA (gross)
  • ISBN 978-90-481-9171-0
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover $159.00
price for USA
  • ISBN 978-90-481-9170-3
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
Softcover $159.00
price for USA
  • ISBN 978-94-007-3285-8
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
Authors
Series Title
Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
Series Volume
30
Copyright
2010
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright Holder
Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
eBook ISBN
978-90-481-9171-0
DOI
10.1007/978-90-481-9171-0
Hardcover ISBN
978-90-481-9170-3
Softcover ISBN
978-94-007-3285-8
Series ISSN
1878-9897
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
XIV, 190
Additional Information
Revised and expanded translation
Topics