Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XVI

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2. General Method

   • Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

   Pages 1-41

3. Basic Macro Comparison

   • Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

   Pages 41-97

4. Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level

   • Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

   Pages 98-143

5. Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level

   • Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

   Pages 144-227

6. Conclusions

   • Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara

   Pages 227-235

7. Back Matter

   Pages 236-238

   PDF

In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics.
In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.

• Delphi-Studie
• Delphi-Study
• Forschung, Entwicklung
• Japan
• Research, Development
• Technologie
• Technology
• science and technology
• technology policy

• Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

  Kerstin Cuhls

• National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Chiyoda-Ku Tokyo 100, Japan

  Terutaka Kuwahara

Policies and ethics