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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013

  • Book
  • © 2014

Overview

Authors:
  1. Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

    1. Xiamen University, Xiamen, People’s Republic, China

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  • A quarterly forecast and analysis report on China's macroeconomic outlook, based on China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM)
  • High reference value for entrepreneurs to project China's macroeconomic performance in the coming years and review possible effectiveness of macroeconomic policies
  • A platform to aid understanding of China's macroeconomic behavior and policy dynamics
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: Current Chinese Economic Report Series (CCERS)

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Table of contents (5 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xii
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  2. A Review of China’s Economy in 2012

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 1-8

  3. Forecast of China’s Macroeconomic Outlook for 2013–2014

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 9-18

  4. Policy Simulation

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 19-27

  5. Policy Implications and Suggestions

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 29-34

  6. Comments and Discussions

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 35-41
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Keywords

About this book

The research team makes the following forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s growth will remain stable and reach 8.23 percent, an increase of 0.43 percentage points compared with the previous year; even though there is inflation pressure resulting from global monetary easing, severe inflation in China is unlikely to happen, and the consumer price index (CPI) will remain at 3.11 percent. Second, the growth of imports and exports will rebound, but the trade surplus will decrease further. Finally, the share of investment in GDP will continue to be high in the short term as urbanization promotes the growth of fixed assets investment, though higher per capita incomes will result in high and steady consumption.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xiamen University, Xiamen, People’s Republic, China

    Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

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