Modeling HIV Transmission and AIDS in the United States

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XI

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2. Background on the Epidemiology and Modeling of HIV/AIDS

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 1-29

3. Modeling the Progression of HIV-Infected Persons to AIDS

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 30-36

4. Formulation of the Simulation Model for Homosexual Men

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 37-43

5. Mathematical Analysis of the Model for Homosexual Men

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 44-55

6. Homosexual Men in San Francisco: Estimation of Parameters and Incidences

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 56-64

7. Homosexual Men in San Francisco: Simulations and Sensitivity Analysis

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 65-82

8. The HIV Transmission Dynamics Model for Five Major Risk Groups

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 83-89

9. Weak Linkage between HIV Epidemics in Homosexual Men and Intravenous Drug Users in New York City

   • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

   Pages 90-106

10. Racial/Ethnic Patterns of AIDS in the United States

    • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

    Pages 107-131

11. Regional Comparisons of HIV and AIDS in Risk Groups

    • Herbert W. Hethcote, James W. Van Ark

    Pages 132-197

12. Back Matter

    Pages 199-234

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The disease that came to be called acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was first identified in the summer of 1981. By that time, nearly 100,000 persons in the United States may have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). By the time the routes of transmission were clearly identified and HIV was established as the cause of AIDS in 1983, over 300,000 people may have been infected. That number has continued to increase, with approximately 1,000,000 Americans believed to be infected in 1991. The epidemic is of great public health concern because HlV is infectious, causes severe morbidity and death in most if not all of those infected, and often occurs in relatively young persons. In addition, the cost of medical care for a person with HIV disease is high, and the medical care needs of HIV-infected persons place a severe burden on the medical care systems in many areas. Understanding and controlling the HIV epidemic is a particularly difficult challenge. The long and variable period between HIV infection and clinical disease makes it difficult both to forecast the future magnitude of the epidemic, which is important for health care planning, and to estimate the number infected in the last several years, which is important for monitoring the current status of the epidemic.

• AIDS
• Computers
• Epidemic Models
• HIV
• Human Immunodeficiency Virus
• Radiologieinformationssystem
• Simulation

• Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA

  Herbert W. Hethcote

• Department of Mathematics, University of Detroit Mercy, Detroit, USA

  James W. Ark

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