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Uncertainty and Risk

Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations

  • Book
  • © 2007

Overview

Editors:
  1. Mohammed Abdellaoui

    1. Maison de la recherche de l’ESTP, GRID, Cachan, France

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  2. R. Duncan Luce

    1. University of California, Irvine, USA

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  3. Mark J. Machina

    1. Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA

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  4. Bertrand Munier

    1. Maison de la recherche de l’ESTP, GRID, Cachan, France

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  • Research on decision criteria in economics, with particular emphasis on the representations of uncertainty
  • New insights into behavior under uncertainty: based on inquiry and reflection rather than intuition
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: Theory and Decision Library C (TDLC, volume 41)

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About this book

We all feel that our world is fundamentally uncertain. But less unanimity emerges as to what we mean by "uncertainty" and how we ought to adjust. Businessmen tend to be "cautious" and engineers to pick up the "right" decision criteria among the many available in the literature, without having much justification about their respective behaviors. This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Some decision criteria are then related to each case and assessed. Alternative ways to deal with risk - and risk attitude concepts - are then examined in the above perspective. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection than on mere intuition.

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Table of contents (17 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-VI
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  2. Introduction

    1. Introduction

      Pages 1-5

  3. Foundations

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 7-7
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    2. Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice under Uncertainty

      • Simon Grant, John Quiggin
      Pages 9-25

    3. When an Event Makes a Difference

      • Massimiliano Amarante, Fabio Maccheroni
      Pages 27-32

    4. Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics

      • John V. Howard
      Pages 33-39

    5. On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty

      • Emanuele Borgonovo, Lorenzo Peccati
      Pages 41-59

  4. The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 61-61
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    2. Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations

      • Ani Guerdjikova
      Pages 63-83

    3. Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best

      • Hans Haller, Shabnam Mousavi
      Pages 85-100

    4. Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation

      • Eva Camacho-Cuena, Christian Seidl
      Pages 101-123

    5. A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting

      • Barry Sopher, Arnav Sheth
      Pages 125-150

  5. The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 151-151
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    2. “Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work “Well” with Binary Cues

      • Robin M. Hogarth, Natalia Karelaia
      Pages 153-185

    3. On Generalized Secretary Problems

      • J. Neil Bearden, Ryan O. Murphy
      Pages 187-205

    4. Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta-Decision on Group Decision Procedures

      • Niels P. Thomas
      Pages 207-219
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Editors and Affiliations

  • Maison de la recherche de l’ESTP, GRID, Cachan, France

    Mohammed Abdellaoui, Bertrand Munier

  • University of California, Irvine, USA

    R. Duncan Luce

  • Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA

    Mark J. Machina

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