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  • Book
  • © 2015

Stochastic Flood Forecasting System

The Middle River Vistula Case Study

  • New approaches to improvements in flood forecasting
  • River simulation model for management support
  • Assessment of the uncertainty of flood forecasting systems
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences (GEPS)

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Table of contents (12 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xvi
  2. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Flow Regime and River Morphology Based on Analytical Studies and Measurements

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
    2. Land Cover Change in the Middle River Vistula Catchment

      • M. Gutry-Korycka, A. MiroÅ„czuk, A. HoÅ›ciÅ‚o
      Pages 3-16
    3. Bed Topography and Discharge Measurements in the Åšwiderskie Islands Nature Reserve, River Vistula, Poland

      • Robert J. Bialik, Joanna SziÅ‚o, MikoÅ‚aj KarpiÅ„ski, Agnieszka Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, Oskar GÅ‚owacki
      Pages 49-58
  3. Lumped Parameter Approximation to Distributed Modelling of River Flow, Distributed Model Emulators and On-line Data Assimilation

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 141-141
    2. Stochastic Transfer Function Based Emulator for the On-line Flood Forecasting

      • Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch
      Pages 159-170
  4. Ensemble Forecasts, Linking Conceptual and Data-Based Models for Flow Forecasting

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 171-171
    2. Adaptation of the Integrated Catchment System to On-line Assimilation of ECMWF Forecasts

      • Adam Kiczko, Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch, Florian Pappenberger
      Pages 173-186
  5. End-User Interests

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 187-187
    2. Social Aspects in Flood Risk Assessment

      • Dorota Rucinska
      Pages 189-198

About this book

This book presents the novel formulation and development of a Stochastic Flood Forecasting System, using the Middle River Vistula basin in Poland as a case study. The system has a modular structure, including models describing the rainfall-runoff and snow-melt processes for tributary catchments and the transformation of a flood wave within the reach. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the elements of the study system are performed at both the calibration and verification stages. The spatial and temporal variability of catchment land use and river flow regime based on analytical studies and measurements is presented. A lumped parameter approximation to the distributed modelling of river flow is developed for the purpose of flow forecasting. Control System based emulators (Hammerstein-Wiener models) are applied to on-line data assimilation. Medium-range probabilistic weather forecasts (ECMWF) and on-line observations of temperature, precipitation and water levels are used to prolong the forecast lead time. The potential end-users will also benefit from a description of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the study area.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Institute of Geophysics, Warszawa, Poland

    Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch

Bibliographic Information

Buy it now

Buying options

eBook USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Other ways to access