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Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatio-temporal Data

  • Book
  • © 2013

Overview

  • Presents a self-contained introduction to conflict modeling
  • Provides novel concepts which are broadly applicable
  • Contains supplementary material, e.g. code and data sets
  • Written by experts in the field
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology (BRIEFSAPPLSCIENCES)

Part of the book sub series: SpringerBriefs in Mathematical Methods (BRIEFSMATHMETH)

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Table of contents (3 chapters)

Keywords

About this book

This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions.
The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

Authors and Affiliations

  • School of Geographical Sciences Department of Mathematics, The University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

    Andrew Zammit-Mangion

  • New York, USA

    Michael Dewar

  • Automatic Control & Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom

    Visakan Kadirkamanathan

  • GIGA German Institute of Global and Area, Hamburg, Germany

    Anaïd Flesken

  • School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

    Guido Sanguinetti

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