Conflict and Complexity

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-x

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2. The Theoretical Background

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. Modeling Terrorist Networks: The Second Decade

      • Philip Vos Fellman

      Pages 3-34

   3. Complex Systems Studies and Terrorism

      • Czeslaw Mesjasz

      Pages 35-71

   4. The Psychology of Terrorism

      • Elena Mastors

      Pages 73-87

   5. A Framework for Agent-Based Social Simulations of Social Identity Dynamics

      • M. Afzal Upal

      Pages 89-109

   6. DIME/PMESII Models

      • Dean S. Hartley III

      Pages 111-136

   7. Net-Centric Logistics: Complex Systems Science Aims at Moving Targets

      • Thomas Ray

      Pages 137-146

3. Applications and Case Studies

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 147-147

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   2. A Fractal Concept of War

      • Maurice Passman

      Pages 149-164

   3. Disrupting Terrorist Networks: A Dynamic Fitness Landscape Approach

      • Philip Vos Fellman, Jonathan P. Clemens, Roxana Wright, Jonathan Vos Post, Matthew Dadmun

      Pages 165-178

   4. Comparison of Approaches for Adversary Modeling Decision Support for Counterterrorism

      • Barry Ezell, Gregory S. Parnell

      Pages 179-197

   5. The Landscape of Maritime Piracy and the Limits of Statistical Prediction

      • Philip Vos Fellman, Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk “Nathan” Thanakijsombat, Pard Teekasap, Britten Schear

      Pages 199-220

   6. Identities, Anonymity and Information Warfare

      • Stuart Jacobs, Lou Chitkushev, Tanya Zlateva

      Pages 221-232

4. Broader Horizons

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 233-233

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   2. The Geography of Ethnic Violence

      • Alex Rutherford, May Lim, Richard Metzler, Dion Harmon, Justin Werfel, Shlomiya Bar-Yam et al.

      Pages 235-248

   3. Food Security and Political Instability: From Ethanol and Speculation to Riots and Revolutions

      • Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam

      Pages 249-259

   4. South African Riots: Repercussion of the Global Food Crisis and US Drought

      • Yavni Bar-Yam, Marco Lagi, Yaneer Bar-Yam

      Pages 261-267

   5. Conflict in Yemen: From Ethnic Fighting to Food Riots

      • Andreas Gros, Alexander S. Gard-Murray, Yaneer Bar-Yam

      Pages 269-280

   6. Complexity and the Limits of Revolution: What Will Happen to the Arab Spring?

      • Alexander S. Gard-Murray, Yaneer Bar-Yam

      Pages 281-292

This book follows the methodologies of complex adaptive systems research in their application to addressing the problems of terrorism, specifically terrorist networks, their structure and various methods of mapping and interdicting them as well as exploring the complex landscape of network-centric and irregular warfare. A variety of new models and approaches are presented here, including Dynamic Network Analysis, DIME/PMESII models, percolation models and emergent models of insurgency. In addition, the analysis is informed by practical experience, with analytical and policy guidance from authors who have served within the U.S. Department of Defense, the British Ministry of Defence as well as those who have served in a civilian capacity as advisors on terrorism and counter-terrorism.

• DIME/PMESII models
• complexity insurgency
• dynamic network analysis
• emergent models of insurgency
• necsi complexity
• necsi terrorism
• nonlinear dynamical systems modeling terrorism
• percolation models
• terrorism complexity
• terrorist network complexity
• complexity

• American Military University, Charles Town, USA

  Philip Vos Fellman

• New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, USA

  Yaneer Bar-Yam

• University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA

  Ali A. Minai

Policies and ethics