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Physics - Complexity | Complexity in Financial Markets - Modeling Psychological Behavior in Agent-Based Models and Order

Complexity in Financial Markets

Modeling Psychological Behavior in Agent-Based Models and Order Book Models

Series: Springer Theses

Cristelli, Matthieu

2014, XIX, 216 p. 95 illus., 33 illus. in color.

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  • Nominated as an outstanding PhD thesis by the University of Rome La Sapienza
  • Explains the self-organization of financial markets
  • Provides new metrics for economic complexity: measuring countries' competitiveness and product complexity
  • Applies big data and new generation tools for forecasting economic growth
Tools and methods from complex systems science can have a considerable impact on the way in which the quantitative assessment of economic and financial issues is approached, as discussed in this thesis. First  it is shown that the self-organization of financial markets is a crucial factor in the understanding of their dynamics. In fact, using an agent-based approach, it is argued that financial markets’ stylized facts appear only in the self-organized state. Secondly, the thesis points out the potential of so-called big data science for financial market modeling, investigating how web-driven data can yield a picture of market activities:  it has been found that web query volumes anticipate trade volumes. As a third achievement, the metrics developed here for country competitiveness and product complexity is groundbreaking in comparison to mainstream theories of economic growth and technological development. A key element in assessing the intangible variables determining the success of countries in the present globalized economy is represented by the diversification of the productive basket of countries. The comparison between the level of complexity of a country's productive system  and economic indicators such as the GDP per capita discloses its hidden growth potential.

Content Level » Research

Keywords » Agent-Based Modeling of Economic Systems - Complexity and Value of Products - Economic Complexity Analysis - Economic Growth Forecasting - Economic Growth Models - Order Book Analysis - Portfolio Allocation - Systemic Risk - Web Search Queries

Related subjects » Applications - Complexity - Database Management & Information Retrieval - Economic Theory

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