Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-x

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2. Introduction

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. The Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Health Forecasting Models for Elderly Populations

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Richard M. Suzman

      Pages 3-35

3. Methodological Issues

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 37-37

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   2. Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods

      • H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Hickman, Edward A. Lew

      Pages 39-49

   3. Demographic Change in the United States, 1970 – 2050

      • Samuel H. Preston

      Pages 51-77

   4. Health Forecasting and Models of Aging

      • Kenneth G. Manton

      Pages 79-106

4. Forecasting Techniques for Specific Diseases

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 107-107

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   2. Cancer Forecasting: Cohort Models of Disease Progression and Mortality

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Eric Stallard

      Pages 109-136

   3. The Effects of Risk Factors on Male and Female Cardiovascular Risks in Middle and Late Age

      • Kenneth G. Manton, John E. Dowd, Eric Stallard

      Pages 137-158

   4. Frailty and Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy in the United States

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Korbin Liu

      Pages 159-181

   5. Risk Factors Affecting Multiple-Disease Efficacy and Effectiveness of Intervention Programs

      • H. Dennis Tolley, Kenneth G. Manton, J. Richard Bumgarner

      Pages 183-203

5. Effects of Interventions on Health Costs

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 205-205

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   2. Estimates and Projections of Dementia-Related Service Expenditures

      • Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, Robert Clark

      Pages 207-238

   3. A Forecasting Model for the Assessment of Medical Technologies: End-Stage Renal Disease

      • Henry Krakauer

      Pages 239-261

   4. Projections of the Aged Supplementary Security Income Population: The Implications of Uncertainty

      • Larry S. Corder, Lisa M. LaVange, Fred A. Bryan

      Pages 263-273

   5. Evaluation of Long-Term Care: Estimation of Health Transitions in Frail Populations

      • H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Vertrees, Kenneth G. Manton

      Pages 275-287

   6. Financing and Use of Long-Term Care for the Elderly

      • Joshua M. Wiener, Raymond J. Hanley, Denise A. Spence, Sheila E. Murray

      Pages 289-304

6. Longitudinal Research: Current Status and Future Outlook

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 305-305

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   2. Molecular Biological Approaches to Understanding Aging and Senescence

      • Huber R. Warner

      Pages 307-317

Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.

• Radiologieinformationssystem
• Time series
• cancer
• epidemiological
• statistics

"...presents several challenges to the reader in that it covers a wide variety of topics in varying amounts of detail...References to the literature in all the related fields are extensive and up to date...In summary, this book is a worthwhile addition to the literature on aging research." (Journal of the American Statistical Association)

• Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, USA

  Kenneth G. Manton

• Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, USA

  Burton H. Singer

• NIH/NIA, Bethesda, USA

  Richard M. Suzman

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