Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xxi

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2. Agrimonde: A Platform for Facilitating Collective Scenario-Building

   • Sébastien Treyer, Sandrine Paillard, Bruno Dorin

   Pages 1-8

3. Agribiom: A Tool for Scenario-Building and Hybrid Modelling

   • Bruno Dorin, Tristan Le Cotty

   Pages 9-35

4. The World Food Economy: A Retrospective Overview

   • Bruno Dorin

   Pages 37-47

5. Scenario-Building Choices and Principles

   • Sandrine Paillard, Tévécia Ronzon, Sébastien Treyer

   Pages 49-58

6. Food Consumption In 2050

   • Jean-Marc Chaumet, Gérard Ghersi, Jean-Louis Rastoin

   Pages 59-72

7. Land Use in 2050

   • Tévécia Ronzon

   Pages 73-99

8. Food Crop Yields in 2050

   • Tévécia Ronzon

   Pages 101-122

9. Resource-Use Balances in the Agrimonde Scenarios

   • Tristan Le Cotty, Jean-Marc Chaumet

   Pages 123-140

10. Agrimonde 1 and Agrimonde GO: Comparison, Coherence, Drivers of Change

    • Tévécia Ronzon, Jean-Marc Chaumet, Sandrine Paillard

    Pages 141-164

11. Qualitative Dimensions and Agrimonde Scenario Storylines

    • Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer

    Pages 165-177

12. Scenario-Based Insight into Food Behaviours, Technological Options and Trade

    • Jean-Marc Chaumet, Francis Delpeuch, Gérard Ghersi, Jean-Louis Rastoin, Bernard Hubert, Tévécia Ronzon et al.

    Pages 179-195

13. Conclusion

    • Bernard Hubert, Patrick Caron, Hervé Guyomard

    Pages 197-203

14. Back Matter

    Pages 205-250

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How will the world be able to feed close to 9 billion people in 2050 and still maintain the ecosystems? In this perspective, INRA and CIRAD launched the initiative, in 2006, to develop a foresight project for analysing issues pertaining to the world's food and agricultural systems on the 2050 timeline. This book provides a synthetic presentation of the main conclusions that this foresight project has yielded. First, it recapitulates the main statistical references for the period 1961 to 2003, before going on to describe the Agribiom simulation tool used to calculate food biomass resource use balances. Two scenarios on the 2050 timeline are then considered: Agrimonde GO is a trend-based scenario that bets on economic growth to feed the world, in a context where environmental protection is not a priority; in contrast, the idea in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the world while preserving its ecosystems.

• Crop yield
• Food production
• Global resources
• Land use

• INRA, Paris, France

  Sandrine Paillard

• IDDRI, Paris, France

  Sébastien Treyer

• CIRAD, Montpellier, France

  Bruno Dorin

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