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Assessing Risk Assessment

Towards Alternative Risk Measures for Complex Financial Systems

  • Book
  • © 2017

Overview

Authors:
  1. Christian Hugo Hoffmann

    1. Kreuzlingen, Switzerland

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  • Publication in the field of economic sciences

  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

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Table of contents (23 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xiv
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  2. Introduction

    • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
    Pages 1-19

  3. Concepts, Model Level and Risk Assessment

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 21-21
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    2. Introduction to Part I

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 23-24

    3. Literature Synthesis, Theoretical Background and Research Focus

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 25-71

    4. Research Questions

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 73-74

    5. On an Adequate Concept of Risk and Systemic Risk in the Realm of Banking

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 75-102

    6. On the Relevance of Systemic Risks for Banks

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 103-121

    7. Dealing with Quantitative Risk Management in Banking as a Complex Systems Problem

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 123-158

    8. The Fundamental Inadequacy of Probability Theory as a Foundation for Modeling Systemic and Extreme Risk in a Banking Context

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 159-185

    9. Conclusion to Part I

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 187-194

  4. The Transition to the Decision Level, Risk Assessment and Management

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 195-195
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    2. Introduction to Part II

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 197-198

    3. The Critical Turn: The Renaissance of Practical Wisdom

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 199-204

    4. Scenario Planning in a Nutshell and its Role in Risk Management in Banking

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 205-212

    5. Strengths and Weaknesses of Scenario Planning as a Risk Management Tool

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 213-218

    6. Deriving Lessons for Rethinking the Approach to Assessing Extreme and Systemic Risks

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 219-222

  5. In Search of a New Paradigm: The Third Way as a Road to Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR)

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 223-223
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    2. Introduction to Part III

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 225-229

    3. Theoretical Foundations of a Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR) Approach

      • Christian Hugo Hoffmann
      Pages 231-278
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Keywords

About this book

Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants’ own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.


Authors and Affiliations

  • Kreuzlingen, Switzerland

    Christian Hugo Hoffmann

About the author

Christian Hugo Hoffmann completed his doctoral studies at the University of St. Gallen and Yale University. He co-founded a financial risk management start-up which translates these theoretical results into practical impact.  


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