Scenario Thinking

Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World

Authors: Cairns, George, Wright, George

  • Provides practical guidance for applying a range of scenario approaches to planning for uncertain future events
  • Presents international single-organization and multi-organizational case studies from the UK, South-East Asia and Australia.
  • Shows how to engage time-poor senior decision makers in the process
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Buy this book

eBook £19.99
price for United Kingdom (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-319-49067-0
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover £24.99
price for United Kingdom (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-319-49066-3
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
About this book

Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development.

What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often.

Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings.

Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

About the authors

George Cairns is an Adjunct Professor at QUT Business School, Brisbane. He has taught scenario methods in the UK, Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai and led scenario research on post-carbon futures, farm futures and regional regeneration in Australia. George has co-authored two books and numerous journal articles on scenario methods.

George Wright is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow. He is an Associate Editor of both the International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. His research has accumulated over 9000 citations in Google Scholar and his scenario-based consultancy includes the UK National Health Service.

Table of contents (11 chapters)

  • Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?

    Cairns, George (et al.)

    Pages 1-23

  • Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method

    Cairns, George (et al.)

    Pages 25-53

  • Incorporating Stakeholders into Scenarios

    Cairns, George (et al.)

    Pages 55-84

  • Building on the Basic Method: Power, Ethics and Critical Scenario Method

    Cairns, George (et al.)

    Pages 85-103

  • Scenarios and Decision Analysis

    Cairns, George (et al.)

    Pages 105-123

Buy this book

eBook £19.99
price for United Kingdom (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-319-49067-0
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover £24.99
price for United Kingdom (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-319-49066-3
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Scenario Thinking
Book Subtitle
Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World
Authors
Copyright
2018
Publisher
Palgrave Macmillan
Copyright Holder
The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s)
eBook ISBN
978-3-319-49067-0
DOI
10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
Hardcover ISBN
978-3-319-49066-3
Edition Number
2
Number of Pages
XIX, 276
Number of Illustrations and Tables
15 b/w illustrations
Topics