Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

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2. Executive Summary

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. A Summary of the Discussions

      • Paul Tempest

      Pages 3-8

3. Prospects for the Global Energy Market

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 9-9

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   2. An Overview

      • David Gore-Booth

      Pages 11-12

   3. A Political Perspective

      • Lord Howell

      Pages 13-18

   4. An Analytical Perspective

      • Michael Smith

      Pages 19-32

   5. An Economic Perspective

      • Adam Sieminski

      Pages 33-49

4. National Strategic Energy Interests

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 51-51

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   2. Energy Security and Unresolved Conflict in the Caucasus

      • H. E. Tedo Japaridze

      Pages 53-58

   3. Prospects for Russian Energy

      • Evgeny Velikhov

      Pages 59-63

5. Evolving Roles of Multilateral Organisations and the Private Sector

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 65-65

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   2. Overview

      • Robert Priddle

      Pages 67-70

   3. The International Energy Forum and Energy Security & Stability

      • Arne Walther

      Pages 71-78

   4. The View from Brussels

      • Andrei Konoplyanik

      Pages 79-86

6. Regional Challenges: the Middle East

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 87-87

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   2. National Strategic Energy Interests and Creating Regional Stability in the Middle East

      • Robert Ebel

      Pages 89-99

   3. Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability

      • Herman Franssen

      Pages 101-123

   4. IRAQ: A Japanese Perspective

      • Ambassador Kunio Katakura

      Pages 125-126

7. Regional Challenges - North Africa

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 127-127

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Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability January 23 to January 25, 2004, Windsor Castle, UK This two-day NATO-sponsored workshop was organised by the Windsor Energy Group and MEC International Ltd with support from NATO’s Science Committee. The workshop was designed to promote a public-private sector exchange on how best to address issues arising in energy security at a time of growing uncertainty. In particular, it sought to assess emerging threats to energy security and stability and discuss new security strategies to protect global energy supplies from regional instability and terrorism. The format involved a wide-ranging international group of poli- formers and advisers from NATO, Partner and other countries, in a unique forum for intensive expert discussion. Background The international community is increasingly conscious of the need to develop new energy security strategies in order to protect global energy supplies from regional instability and terrorism. Energy security is a vital element in international stability. However, a variety of energy-related economic, technical, and military/political factors pose serious challenges to the international community’s pursuit of energy security and stability: The global economy is expected to continue to be largely dependent on oil and gas for the next twenty to thirty years. Current levels of production may need to be doubled in this period, with most of the increment coming from the Gulf States who control 66% of global oil reserves and 40% of global natural gas reserves. There are forecasts of significant capacity shortfalls.

• China
• Euro
• Global economy
• Oil and Gas
• organization

• MEC International Ltd., London, UK

  Hugo McPherson

• Institute for Applied Science, Edinburgh, UK

  W. Duncan Wood

• Trilateral Group Ltd., London, UK

  Derek M. Robinson

Policies and ethics