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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2014

  • Book
  • © 2015

Overview

Authors:
  1. CMR of Xiamen University

    1. CMR of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

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  • A quarterly forecast and analysis report series on the current Chinese economy, based on the "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM)"
  • Regularly releases forecasts of China’s macroeconomic indices and assesses the effectiveness of current macroeconomic policies
  • The research is very helpful for research institutions and entrepreneurs looking to understand China’s macroeconomic performance and policy dynamics
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: Current Chinese Economic Report Series (CCERS)

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Table of contents (7 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xi
    Download chapter PDF

  2. Introduction

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 1-6

  3. A Review of China’s Economy in 2013

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 7-18

  4. Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 19-27

  5. Policy Simulation

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 29-45

  6. Policy Implications and Recommendations

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 47-50

  7. Comments and Discussion

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 51-60

  8. A Survey of China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2014

    • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
    Pages 61-66
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Keywords

About this book

​This book  provides key insights into how to control local government debts and optimize the makeup of debts in China. The rapid growth of investment in infrastructure on the part of local governments has offset the slowdown of investment growth in manufacturing and real estate and maintained the growth rate of 7.7% in 2013. However, local governments’ debts have accumulated, which increases the risk of debt default and threatens the stability of China’s financial system. The research suggests that increasing the proportion of issuing bonds in total debts would be the first step toward eliminating the debt risk. Second, the Chinese government should play its part; and lastly, the government should relinquish its administrative control and monopoly in order to allow the service industry to further develop.

Authors and Affiliations

  • CMR of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

    CMR of Xiamen University

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