China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-ix

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2. Introduction

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 1-4

3. A Review of China’s Economy in the First Half of 2014

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 5-16

4. Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 17-27

5. Policy Simulations

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 29-37

6. Conclusions and Suggestions

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 39-41

7. A Survey of Chinese Economists on China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2014

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

   Pages 43-49

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China.  In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

• Econometric model
• Macroeconomic analysis
• Macroeconomic forecast
• Policy simulation
• Quarterly data

• Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

  Xiamen University

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