Output and Employment Fluctuations

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-VI

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2. Prefaratory Note

   1. Prefatory Note

      • Klaus F. Zimmermann

      Pages 1-1

3. Output and Employment Fluctuations

   1. Output and Employment Fluctuations

      • Klaus F. Zimmermann

      Pages 3-5

4. Labour Demand and Supply

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 7-7

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   2. Demand Uncertainty and Labour Input in a Bivariate ARCH-M Model

      • Gebhard Flaig

      Pages 9-22

   3. Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment

      • Friedhelm Pfeiffer, Winfried Pohlmeier

      Pages 23-39

   4. The Demographics of Labour Turnover: A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models

      • Lucie Merkle, Klaus F. Zimmermann

      Pages 41-64

5. Productivity Slowdown and Innovative Activity

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 65-65

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   2. The “Public Capital Hypothesis”: The Case of Germany

      • Klaus Conrad, Helmut Seitz

      Pages 67-85

   3. Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Binary Choice Models Using Panel Data: An Application to the Innovative Activity of German Firms

      • François Laisney, Michael Lechner, Winfried Pohlmeier

      Pages 87-101

6. Disequilibrium and Business Cycle Analysis

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 103-103

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   2. The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany

      • Wolfgang Franz, Gustav Heidbrink

      Pages 105-129

   3. Overtime Work, Lack of Labour, and Structural Mismatch: Some Extensions of the “European Unemployment Programme” Framework

      • Horst Entorf

      Pages 131-156

   4. International Business Cycles and Long-Run Growth: An Analysis with Markov-Switching and Cointegration Methods

      • Juergen Kähler, Volker Marnet

      Pages 157-175

7. Time Series Analysis of Output and Employment

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 177-177

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   2. Persistence and Seasonality in Output and Employment of the Federal Republic of Germany

      • Jürgen Wolters

      Pages 179-197

   3. Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

      • Rolf Tschernig, Klaus F. Zimmermann

      Pages 199-211

   4. On the Long-run Relationship Between Money, Output and Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis for West Germany

      • Werner Gaab, Olaf Liedtke

      Pages 213-229

   5. Modelling Cyclical Asymmetry in a Production Series Using Threshold Autoregressive Models

      • Horst Kräger

      Pages 231-244

   6. Summary of Articles

      • Horst Kräger

      Pages 245-249

This book consists of four parts: I. Labour demand and supply, II. Productivity slowdown and innovative activity, III. Disequilibrium and business cycle analysis, and IV. Time series analysis of output and employment. It presents a fine selection of articles in the growing field ofthe empirical analysis of output and employment fluctuations with applications in a micro-econometric or a time-series framework. The time-series literature recently has emphasized the careful testing for stationarity and nonlinearity in the data, and the importance of cointegration theory. An essential part of the papers make use of parametric and non-parametric methods developed in this literature and mostly connect their results to the hysteresis discussion about the existence of fragile equilibria. A second set of macro approaches use the disequilibrium framework that has found so much interest in Europe in recent years. The other papers use newly developed methods for microdata,especially qualitative data or limited dependent variables to study microeconomic models of behaviour that explain labour market and output decisions.

• Employment
• Employment Fluctuation
• Import
• integration
• labor market
• production
• productivity
• unemployment

• SELAPO, Universität München, München, Germany

  Klaus F. Zimmermann

• CEPR, London, UK

  Klaus F. Zimmermann

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