Efficient and equitable policies for managing disaster risks and adapting to global environmental change are critically dependent on development of robust options supported by integrated modeling.
The book is based on research and state-of-the art models developed at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and within its cooperation network. It addresses the methodological complexities of assessing disaster risks, which call for stochastic simulation, optimization methods and economic modeling. Furthermore, it describes policy frameworks for integrated disaster risk management, including stakeholder participation facilitated by user-interactive decision-support tools.
Applications and results are presented for a number of case studies at different problem scales and in different socio-economic contexts, and their implications for loss sharing policies and economic development are discussed. Among others, the book presents studies for insurance policies for earthquakes in the Tuscany region in Italy and flood risk in the Tisza river basin in Hungary. Further, it investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on development and possible financial coping strategies; and applications are shown for selected South Asian countries.
The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with catastrophe risk management and risk mitigation policies.
PART I. Integrated modeling and risk sharing
1. Catastrophic Risk Management: Flood and Seismic Risks Case Studies
2 . Managing Flash Flood Risk to Vienna and its Subway System - Uncertainty and Modeling
3. Handling Multiple Criteria in Flood Management
PART II. Economic developments under catastrophes
4. Economic Growth under Catastrophes
5. Evaluation of Dams for Flood Protection: Economic and Equity Aspects
6. The CATSIM Model for Assessing Policy Response to Disasters in Developing Countries
7. Modelling the Economic Effects of Disaster Risk in Nepal
PART III. Flood risk management for the Tisza River Basin in Hungary
8. Catastrophe Models and Policy Processes. Managing Flood Risk in the Hungarian Tisza River Basin. An Introduction.
9. Social Indicators of Vulnerability to Floods – An Empirical Case Study in Two Upper Tisza Flood Basins
10. Designing a Flood Management and Insurance System in Hungary: A Model-Based Stakeholder Approach
11. Consensus by Simulation: A Flood Model for Participatory Policy
12. A Risk-Based Decision Analytic Approach to Assessing Multi-Stakeholder Policy Problems
13. Financial Instruments in Integrated Catastrophic Flood Management: Demand for contingent credits
14. Flood Loss Considerations and Adaptation Strategies due to Climate Change in Hungary and the Tisza Region