California Climate Scenarios Assessment

In response to Executive Order S-3-05, an evaluation of the implications to California of possible climate changes was undertaken using a scenario-based approach. The “Scenarios Project” investigated projected impacts of climate change on six sectors in the California region. The investigation considered the early, middle and later portions of the twenty-first century, guided by a set of IPCC Fourth Assessment global climate model runs forced by higher and lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Each of these climate simulations produce substantial impacts in California that would require adaptations from present practices or status. The most severe impacts could be avoided, however, if emissions can be held near the lower end of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

Reprinted from Climatic Change, Vol. 109: Supplement 1 (2011)

• IPCC Fourth Assessment
• climate change
• climate warming
• environmental policy
• greenhouse gases
• wildfire
• climate change impacts

• University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA

  Daniel R. Cayan

• Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, USA

  Susanne Moser

• Public Interest Energy Research California Energy Commission, Sacramento, USA

  Guido Franco

• Economics Department, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA

  Michael Hanemann

• University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Sacramento, USA

  Myoung-Ae Jones

Dr. Daniel R. Cayan is a Research Meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, and is also a Researcher at the U.S. Geological Survey. His work is aimed at understanding climate variability and changes over the Pacific Ocean and North America. Specific interests concern impacts of climate changes on water resources and other sectors in western North America.
Cayan heads the California Nevada Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center, climate research programs to improve climate information and forecasts for decision makers in the California region.
Cayan received a BS degree in Meteorology and Oceanography in 1971 from the University of Michigan. He received a Ph.D. in Oceanography in 1990 from the University of California, San Diego. He has been employed by Scripps since 1977 and by the U. S. Geological Survey Water Resources Division since 1991.

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