Overview
- A lens to look through into the future of international migration in Europe A migration forecaster’s toolkit, applying expert knowledge to account for uncertainty An honest account of the limits of predictability of international migration Hints for
- population-related decision making under uncertainty
Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (PSDE, volume 24)
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Table of contents (12 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Introduction
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Front Matter
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Explaining and Forecasting Migration
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Front Matter
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Examples of Bayesian Migration Predictions
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Front Matter
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Perspectives of Forecast Makers and Users
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Front Matter
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Conclusion
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Front Matter
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Back Matter
Keywords
About this book
Reviews
From the reviews:
“Forecasters know (or at least should know) that their forecasts never come true and that the magnitude of error increases with the forecast's horizon. Jakub Bijak proposes an elegant solution to this problem, namely an application of Bayesian statistics to migration forecasting. Methodology he proposes allows for quantification of forecast uncertainty, giving the forecast's user an idea of how accurate the forecast is. As in the past a transition form single-regional to multi-regional forecasts constituted a milestone in demographic forecasting, the methodology proposed by Bijak and advocated earlier by other demographers will constitute a similar milestone in the future.” Dr Marek Kupiszewski, Director of the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research in Warsaw
“The book is structured in five parts comprising twelve chapters. … The book is well-addressed to both policy- and theory-oriented readers, demographers and in particular statistical demographers, as well as to postgraduate students of demography and migration.” (Christina Diakaki, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1209, 2011)
Authors and Affiliations
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View
Authors: Jakub Bijak
Series Title: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0
Publisher: Springer Dordrecht
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, Social Sciences (R0)
Copyright Information: Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Hardcover ISBN: 978-90-481-8896-3Published: 31 October 2010
Softcover ISBN: 978-94-007-3395-4Published: 01 December 2012
eBook ISBN: 978-90-481-8897-0Published: 23 October 2010
Series ISSN: 1877-2560
Series E-ISSN: 2215-1990
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XXIV, 316
Additional Information: With contribution by Arkadiusz Wisniowski
Topics: Demography, Migration, Statistical Theory and Methods