Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-IX

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2. Introduction

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. Statistical and Mathematical Approaches in HIV/AIDS Modeling: A Review

      • Steven J. Schwager, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Herbert Hethcote

      Pages 2-35

3. Statistical Methodology and Forecasting

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 37-37

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   2. Epidemic Models, Empirical Studies, and Uncertainty

      • Victor De Gruttola, Stephen Lagakos

      Pages 38-57

   3. Predicting AIDS Incidence by Extrapolating from Recent Trends

      • John M. Karon, Owen J. Devine, W. Meade Morgan

      Pages 58-88

4. Infectivity and the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 89-89

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   2. Measuring HIV Infectivity

      • Scott P. Layne, John L. Spouge, Micah Dembo

      Pages 90-110

   3. The Stages of HIV Infection: Waiting Times and Infection Transmission Probabilities

      • Ira M. Longini, W. Scott Clark Jr., Michael Haber, Robert Horsburgh Jr.

      Pages 111-137

   4. Modeling Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Infectivity for HIV Infection

      • N. Scott Cardell, David E. Kanouse

      Pages 138-156

   5. On the Role of Variable Infectivity in the Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic

      • Horst R. Thieme, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

      Pages 157-176

5. Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 177-177

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   2. Assessment of the Risk of HIV Spread Via Non-Steady Heterosexual Partners in the U.S. Population

      • Joan L. Aron, P. Sankara Sarma

      Pages 178-199

   3. On the Role of Long Incubation Periods in the Dynamics of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Part 2: Multiple Group Models

      • Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Kenneth L. Cooke, Wenzhang Huang, Simon A. Levin

      Pages 200-217

   4. Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission

      • Edward H. Kaplan, Peter C. Cramton, A. David Paltiel

      Pages 218-239

6. Social Dynamics and AIDS

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 241-241

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   2. The Structure and Context of Social Interactions and the Spread of HIV

      • Lisa Sattenspiel

      Pages 242-259

   3. Pair Formation in Sexually-Transmitted Diseases

      • Roland Waldstätter

      Pages 260-274

   4. Mixing Framework for Social/Sexual Behavior

      • Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Stephen P. Blythe

      Pages 275-288

   5. Interaction, Pair Formation and Force of Infection Terms in Sexually Transmitted Diseases

      • Stavros Busenberg, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

      Pages 289-300

The 18 research articles of this volume discuss the major themes that have emerged from mathematical and statistical research in the epidemiology of HIV. The opening paper reviews important recent contributions. Five sections follow: Statistical Methodology and Forecasting, Infectivity and the HIV, Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics, Social Dynamics and AIDS, and The Immune System and The HIV. In each, leading experts in AIDS epidemiology present the recent results. Some address the role of variable infectivity, heterogeneous mixing, and long periods of infectiousness in the dynamics of HIV; others concentrate on parameter estimation and short-term forecasting. The last section looks at the interaction between the HIV and the immune system.

• AIDS
• assessment
• diseases
• dynamics
• epidemiology
• virus

• Biometrics Unit, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA

  Carlos Castillo-Chavez

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