The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xvii

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2. The Scope and Purpose of the Book

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 1-8

3. The Debate about the Contagiousness of Influenza

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 9-21

4. Epidemic Influenza, 1900–1932

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 23-32

5. The Effect of the Discovery of the Causal Organism

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 33-42

6. The Viruses that Cause Epidemic Influenza

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 43-49

7. Antigenic Variation and Recycling of Influenza A Viruses

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 51-57

8. The Necessity for a New Concept

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 59-76

9. The Influence of Season

   • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

   Pages 77-93

10. The Explanation of Antigenic Drift

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 95-109

11. Antigenic Shift of Influenza A Virus

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 111-129

12. Hypotheses of Antigenic Shift

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 131-141

13. Some Other Epidemiological Hypotheses

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 143-156

14. Influenza in Nonhuman Hosts

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 157-170

15. Experimental Studies

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 171-184

16. Influenzal Anachronisms

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 185-189

17. The New Concept in Detail

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 191-200

18. Some Tests of the New Concept

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 201-223

19. The Natural History of Human Influenza

    • R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

    Pages 225-242

20. Back Matter

    Pages 243-251

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THE PLAGUE YEARS Mankind has always been fascinated by "origins," and biologists are no exception. Darwin is our most famous example. What is the origin of mankind, of species, of infectious diseases? In the last few years we have seen the emergence and spread of some apparently "new" viruses, such as HIV -1 and the virus causing bovine spongiform encephalomyelopathy. But are these, in fact, entirely new agents, or mutated forms of "old" viruses that have evolved along with us for eons? Edgar Hope-Simpson could not have written this book at a more opportune moment. He is a firm believer in gradual evolution, rather than the sudden arrival of new agents. I suspect that he would also have a naturalist's Darwinian approach for the origin of AIDS. It has been a source of some amazement to me over the years how even the most innovative scientists conform to a current hypothesis. Pioneer thinking comes more easily to persons outside the scientific mainstream. Edgar Hope­ Simpson has always struck me as a modem-day naturalist of the classic style, observant and perhaps a little maverick in line of thought. Certainly, the central hypothesis propounded in this book will be controversial to many scientists. From his unique citadel, the Epidemiological Research Unit in Cirencester, he has carefully reexamined mortality data from old records as well as new.

• antigen
• cyclin
• epidemiological
• virus
• infectious diseases

• Cirencester Epidemiological Research Unit, Cirencester, Gloucestershire, England

  R. Edgar Hope-Simpson

Policies and ethics