A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xix

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2. Policy Challenges in a World of Nonlinearity and Structural Change

   • Kenyon B. De Greene

   Pages 1-42

3. Policy in a World of Evolution, Learning, and Ignorance

   • Peter M. Allen

   Pages 43-64

4. Adaptive Control and Conflict Resolution for International Stability

   • Harold Chestnut

   Pages 65-101

5. Field-Theoretic Framework for Systems Theory and Systems Thinking

   • Kenyon B. De Greene

   Pages 103-137

6. School for Rulers

   • Yehezkel Dror

   Pages 139-174

7. Policy: Appearance and Reality

   • Fred E. Emery

   Pages 175-197

8. System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years

   • Jay W. Forrester

   Pages 199-240

9. Whole-System Concepts in Societal Transformation

   • Willis Harman

   Pages 241-273

10. Breaking Out of the Systems Quandary

    • Harold A. Linstone

    Pages 275-295

11. Decision Management, Then and Now, 1790, 1890 and 1990: Selected Scenario Models

    • Jacques G. Richardson

    Pages 297-344

12. Back Matter

    Pages 345-355

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This book is based on a number of systems concepts, of which the following are emphasized here: oThe interacting systems of society and the environment are dynamic and evolution­ ary oEvolution of these systems carries them through stages of differential stability and instability, continuity and discontinuity oAssociated with evolution and instability is structural change that is essentially irre­ versible oThe present is a stage of world transformation that may not have been equaled for decades or even centuries oPolicies and decisions must match the times, in the present case the stage of world transformation The time 11:59:59 PM, approximately, on December 31, 2000 has an impor­ tant symbolic meaning. It marks the end of a minute, the end of an hour, the end of a day, the end of a year, the end of a decade, the end of a century, and the end of a millennium. The time and date provide a convenient yardstick against which we can evaluate the evolution of our thinking and the adequacy of our assumptions, mental models, paradigms, and policies. Will the beginning tum out to be appropriately dif­ ferent from the end? We hope that this book is helpful in such evaluation. This is a new-paradigm book, which both presents and advances the new way of thinking about the systems of science, technology, society, economics, politics, and the environment, and actively calls for the replacement of the worn­ out cognitive/sociotechnical paradigm.

• Chaos
• Government
• calculus
• communication
• complex system
• complexity
• learning
• model
• modeling
• policymaking
• systems theory

• University of Southern California, USA

  Kenyon B. Greene

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