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Estimating Impact

A Handbook of Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, Social, Political and Security Effects in International Interventions

  • Book
  • © 2010

Overview

Editors:
  1. Alexander Kott

    1. Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Gary Citrenbaum

    1. SoSA Corporation, Fairfax, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  • Focused on "how-to" applied information for technologists & practitioners in the field of military & humanitarian interventions, with examples on how principles can be applied to spheres like business & social circumstances
  • Combines 2 key perspectives: emerging technologies & practical execution of interventions
  • Supports the use of computational aids in politico-social fields that remain suspicious of technology
  • Editors & contributors are leading experts in their respective areas
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

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Table of contents (12 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xviii
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  2. Introduction: Judgment and Computation

    • Alexander Kott, Gary Citrenbaum, G. Jiyun Kim
    Pages 1-14

  3. Emerging Techniques and Tools

    • Ed Waltz
    Pages 15-41

  4. Politics and Power

    • Mark Abdollahian, Jacek Kugler, Brice Nicholson, Hana Oh
    Pages 43-90

  5. Economics and Markets

    • Alan K. Graham
    Pages 91-134

  6. Media and Influence

    • William H. Bennett
    Pages 135-178

  7. Governance and Society

    • Corey Lofdahl
    Pages 179-204

  8. Groups and Violence

    • Ravi Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, Rick Riolo
    Pages 205-237

  9. Insurgency and Security

    • Alexander Kott, Bruce Skarin
    Pages 239-262

  10. Crime and Corruption

    • Deborah Duong, Robert Turner, Karl Selke
    Pages 263-284

  11. Visualization and Comprehension

    • David Jonker, William Wright
    Pages 285-309

  12. Verification and Validation

    • Dean Hartley, Stuart Starr
    Pages 311-336

  13. Conclusions: Anticipation and Action

    • Alexander Kott, Stephen Morse
    Pages 337-347

  14. Back Matter

    Pages 349-362
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Keywords

About this book

Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron–Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy’s effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.

Reviews

From the reviews:

“Anyone involved in modeling or planning will want this excellent introduction. … The book also includes a variety of case studies and examples. The editors provide several tables so that the reader may locate an example related to a mechanism of intervention, an effect of intervention, or a modeling technique. The references at the end of each chapter, as well as the index, are well done. … an excellent introduction to the current field of modeling interventions, and will be useful and worthwhile to readers.” (Brad Reid, ACM Computing Reviews, June, 2011)

Editors and Affiliations

  • Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, USA

    Alexander Kott

  • SoSA Corporation, Fairfax, USA

    Gary Citrenbaum

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