The Analysis of Sports Forecasting

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xviii

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2. Introduction: A Variety of Betting Lines

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 1-5

3. Models, Moralities, and Misconceptions

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 7-24

4. Modeling Concepts

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 25-55

5. Football

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 57-72

6. Basketball

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 73-81

7. Baseball

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 83-121

8. Selection of Athletes

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 123-140

9. Financial Markets

   • William S. Mallios

   Pages 141-214

10. Back Matter

    Pages 215-294

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Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

• Forecasting
• calculus
• modeling
• regression
• time series
• time series analysis

• Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno, USA

  William S. Mallios

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